Polymarket’s inquiry puts profitable wagers tied to Israel’s election under review after several accounts withdrew a combined total above $100,000.
Bloomberg identified upward of 600 wallets that had all been opened on a single day, had never traded before and backed either a Netanyahu victory or Likud finishing first. Polymarket’s internal investigative team is examining dozens of recently set-up wallets used for election bets.
Since mid-July, traders on the platform had rated the opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot as more likely than Benjamin Netanyahu to become the country’s next prime minister.
Israel held its election on October 27, with voting due to close on Tuesday. Hundreds of newly created accounts then wagered shortly before the close that Netanyahu and Likud would prevail.
The bets clustered in two markets: one on whether Netanyahu would become the next premier, and another on whether Likud would take more seats than any other party.
After voting ended, exit polls showed Likud winning more seats than early reports had suggested. Netanyahu’s odds rose to 54%, while Eisenkot’s fell to 23%.
Those positions became profitable after the exit polls. Polysights said on X that its tools had detected “massive inflows of YES buys on fresh wallets” as Netanyahu’s odds rose.
Bloomberg said it analysed Polymarket’s blockchain ledger and found the trading pattern. Polysights and Bubblemaps told Bloomberg that they considered the trades suspicious and were examining what had happened.
Bloomberg published its findings on October 29. Polymarket’s investigative team then told reporters it was looking into dozens of the recently opened wallets.
Shana Bautista, Polymarket’s head of global intelligence and investigations, told NPR that 16 people on her team and a newly built system for monitoring elections were tracking wagers tied to the vote. She said the company had investigated “dozens” of election-related cases.
Polymarket’s rules prohibit trading on confidential information when using it breaches a pre-existing duty of trust. They also bar knowingly using prohibited tips and trading by people with sufficient authority or influence to affect an event’s outcome.
The company says it can ban wallets, pursue legal action or refer matters to law enforcement when warranted, and has referred 90+ accounts to law enforcement.
There are precedents for allegations involving sensitive information. Israeli authorities have brought charges this year against a military reservist and a civilian accused of betting on Polymarket about security operations in Iran using secret military information.
Federal prosecutors have also charged US Army soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke, accusing him of using confidential details of a Venezuela military operation to pocket over $400,000 on Polymarket. Van Dyke has pleaded not guilty.
Bloomberg cautioned that its findings on the Israel election trades were inconclusive. It said potential insider trading can be difficult to distinguish from original research or a lucky wager, and no trader has been publicly accused of wrongdoing.
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