Republicans face an immediate struggle for control of their party after a midterm defeat that has put its leadership contest and its relationship with President Trump under fresh pressure. House Republicans are scheduled to choose their next leadership team this coming Tuesday, while Steve Scalise and Jim Jordan compete for the speakership.
A White House ally said disapproval over the Iran war, tariffs and the administration’s immigration crackdown created a “perfect storm” in November. The same ally described “palpable frustration [within] the party” and said anger with Trump “is extremely high.”
Trump had held dozens of campaign rallies before the midterms, while his Super PAC spent hundreds of millions supporting Republican candidates. On Tuesday night, Democrats won upset victories in Texas, Kansas and South Carolina, states described as deep-red, in what Republicans called the worst defeat in modern history.
Republicans described the result as the biggest midterm wave in 50 years. Since 1934, the party holding the White House has gained seats in only three midterm elections.
Trump said nothing publicly for much of election night. After the House and Senate were called for Democrats, he posted on Truth Social: “I wasn't on the Ballot and if I was, we would have won IN A LANDSLIDE!” He later told Fox News that he was “a little bit surprised” by the results.
By Wednesday morning, Republicans had woken “in shock” at the scale of the losses. Within hours, that shock had become rage among House Republicans.
Bill Miller, a top Republican lobbyist in Texas, put the blame squarely on Trump. “It's on him. It's not on anybody else. It's a total, complete rejection of President Trump. This is a disaster of the first magnitude. Nobody saw it coming like this,” Miller said.
A GOP strategist told The New York Times that Trump was “the engineer of the Republican collapse.” Privately, Republicans acknowledge that Trump is the leading suspect for potential midterm losses.
Representative Greg Steube attacked Republican congressional leaders in a Wednesday morning post on X. “Dear Republican Senate and House Leadership, No, the polls were not wrong. You were. Even with record amounts of money at your disposal, you managed to get absolutely annihilated,” he wrote, calling for “new leadership” that can “take a truly conservative direction.”
Vice President JD Vance said the Iran war was the “real reason” for Tuesday’s losses. Vance is positioning himself for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination as Trump comes under fire within the party.
Other Republicans had voiced concerns over the issues now cited in the party’s recriminations. At a closed-door fundraiser in September, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton said: “It's not tariffs … it's the war, it's gas prices, it's diesel.” Former Representative Mike Rogers, the GOP Senate nominee, broke with Trump over tariffs on Canada in an October campaign advertisement, saying: “We need to end this tariff war now.”
Returning Republican senators are unlikely to blame Trump publicly because of potential consequences, while departing GOP lawmakers are expected to target Trump or his team. Trump, meanwhile, is expected to fire back at Senate Republicans.
Speaker Mike Johnson withdrew from the leadership race on Wednesday morning, saying the job had taken a toll on his family. Scalise and Jordan are now set for a rematch of their bitter 2023 contest for the speakership.
The result has left Republicans arguing over responsibility before the election fallout has settled. The leadership vote this coming Tuesday will test which faction can claim the party’s future.
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