Toyota is forecast to return to operating-income growth after five quarters of decline, with July-September operating profit predicted to rise 18 percent to 992 billion yen ($6.3 billion).
The expected improvement reflects robust demand for hybrid vehicles and a weaker yen, which are offsetting weaker sales in China and the Middle East. Earnings should also benefit from the absence of US tariff-related costs that weighed on the company a year earlier.
The median forecast from nine analysts surveyed by LSEG puts Toyota's quarterly revenue at 13.4 trillion yen, an 8 percent increase.
The arithmetic behind that forecast is unusually regional. Global sales of Toyota and Lexus vehicles fell 4 percent to just over 2.5 million units during the quarter.
China sales declined 22 percent, while sales in the Middle East dropped one-third.
North America supplied the counterweight. Electrified-vehicle sales there jumped more than 30 percent to almost 430,000 vehicles, even as Toyota's overall US sales volumes rose less than 1 percent.
That leaves the company relying on a favourable mix of demand, currency and costs rather than a broad rise in vehicle volumes. Toyota is due to report the forecast operating-income increase on Thursday.
The turnaround comes as the carmaker also faces a substantial future bill for its production network. Toyota has estimated that modernising factories, as it expands automation and robotics, could cost 1 trillion yen annually from 2028.
Pressure in Asia is also visible elsewhere in the supply chain. Denso reported a more than one-third fall in operating profit in Asia for the six months through September.
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