US drivers have already seen retail diesel fall to $4.153 this week, after it reached a record $6.53 per gallon in September.
Ben Cahill, a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council, said the sell-off reflected expectations that President Donald Trump would de-escalate the conflict. “This crude price drop is entirely about the U.S. election and the belief that Trump will de-escalate rather than escalate on Iran. JD Vance's statement amplified that sentiment.”
Democrats took control of Congress from Republicans in Tuesday’s midterm elections. The Associated Press reported that Democrats had won 54 Senate seats as of 8:14am EDT, above the 50-seat threshold for control, while they had secured 228 House seats, above the 218 needed for a majority.
When oil markets opened on Wednesday, 4 November 2026, Brent crude was down 2.02% at $101.50 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude had dropped 1.71% to $94.83 by 8:12am EDT.
Vance, the vice president, blamed the Iran war for the Republican result. “The reason we lost is the war,” he wrote on X, adding that “any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.”
Trump also linked the defeat to fuel costs and the conflict. “I think it's the gasoline price,” he told Fox News on Tuesday night, while saying: “I think a part of it was Iran, but at the same time people understood the importance of what I've done with Iran.”
The Trump administration has been at war with Iran for eight months. The US and Israel launched the war in late February, and it has raised gasoline and diesel prices.
By 12:36pm ET, West Texas Intermediate had fallen to $87.59 a barrel, down nearly 9%. Brent futures slid more than 9% to $93.91 in Wednesday afternoon trading.
At 1:06pm ET, Brent was down $8.94, or 8.6%, at $94.66 a barrel after touching its lowest level since 4 September. Separate price data put Brent at $94.37 on 4 November 2026, down from a peak of $116.31 on Oct. 28.
Oil futures were down more than 14% for the week.
Pavel Molchanov, an analyst with Raymond James, called Vance’s post a “key catalyst” for the price plunge. He said: “For oil prices to sustainably move lower, a durable off-ramp is needed.”
Trump had told the Financial Times that Washington had no immediate plans to strike Iran. Senator Chuck Schumer, the Democrat likely to become Senate majority leader in the next Congress, said Democrats would push to end the war.
Gulf share indices rose as crude fell. Qatar’s QSI gained 2.3%, Dubai’s main index rose 2.1% and Saudi Arabia’s TASI climbed 1.65%.
Whether the administration will change its Iran policy remains unclear. The price move has reflected expectations of an off-ramp rather than confirmation of one.
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