Clara Iversen writes on markets and the macro forces underneath them, translating rate moves and risk into plain English. Measured, historically minded, and allergic to false certainty.
Brent crude climbed sharply through the third quarter, and economists expect energy costs to push September's headline CPI above August's 3.4% rate. Core prices, which strip out food and energy, are forecast to come in far lower at 2.5%.
September's rate was the highest since December 2023, driven by a 37.1% jump in motor fuel and a 74.9% surge in heating oil — both tied to crude oil market shifts since the Iran war began. Electricity and gas prices fell, and food prices rose just 0.4%.
The fund upgraded its outlook for India by 0.3 percentage points in its April World Economic Outlook. China's forecast was left unchanged at 4.6 percent, down from 5.2 percent in 2023.
September shipments reached 1.6 million tonnes — their highest since the conflict began, but still below a quarter of pre-war levels. The Strait of Hormuz remains severely restricted, and analysts say recovery would take well over half a year even if the fighting stopped today.
Construction spending on data centres hit an annual rate of $85 billion in August, driving up demand for labour, materials and chips. The Fed's problem is that AI investment appears largely immune to higher interest rates.
Ten-year eurozone yields reached nearly 4% in September, with France's bond yields at their highest since 2008. Italy, whose public debt is projected near 139% of GDP, is the most exposed — and both governments are now weighing painful cuts against the risk of stalling their economies.
French 10-year yields reached 4.74%, the widest spread over German debt since the depths of the eurozone crisis. The ECB has tools to intervene, but their conditions include sound public finances — which France does not currently meet.
Trump confirmed the strait is open and the East-West pipeline has recovered about half its capacity. But on 1 October, Brent was $99-100 a barrel against $72.50 before the crisis, and European gas was more than double its pre-war level.
Talks with Asian customers over alternative delivery routes must conclude by year-end, though pricing, freight and eligible volumes are unresolved. The push comes after a drone attack on 13 September knocked out the East-West Pipeline, Saudi Arabia's main overland route around the strait.
BP is also evacuating workers from offshore platforms. The Gulf's offshore fields account for about 15% of US oil production, and forecasters say the storm could strengthen into a hurricane by the weekend.
All 19 officials backed lifting the benchmark rate to between 3.75% and 4%. Most see another rise by year end as likely, though markets have since cut the odds of an October hike to around 20%.
French covered bonds have widened by eight basis points on average, more than double the spread increase seen in German equivalents. Shorter maturities would give France more flexibility but would expose its interest bill to rising yields more quickly.
An agreement is close to completion, with the first convoy expected in Syria by mid-October. The two countries are also reviving a pipeline that would give Iraq a more permanent route to the Mediterranean.
Import prices respond almost immediately, while US-made goods take six to twelve months to adjust as higher costs move through supply chains. The effect eased to around 2% by August after a Supreme Court ruling struck down the emergency powers behind the steepest tariffs.
Chinese refiners stopped all exports except to Hong Kong and Macau after domestic stocks fell to multi-year lows. The move pushed oil up 4%, adding to pressure from Russia's ongoing diesel export ban and US distillate stocks running 14% below their five-year average.
The dollar-yen rate dropped from nearly 164 to 155.20 within hours of the joint operation. Some of the gain faded within days, with the rate back to 159.09 by 10 August 2026.
Crude is flowing again through the Strait of Hormuz under US Navy convoy, but ships are waiting days or weeks to load. Charter costs have added about $26 a barrel to cargoes heading from Houston to Asia.
The 10-year yield touched 5.342% after the Fed's latest rate rise, drawing billions into bond funds. Wealth advisers are divided over whether retirees should switch — dividend stocks have historically held up better in downturns.
The new official rate is 1,520 dinars to the US dollar, down from around 1,300. US-Iran tensions blocked Iraq's main oil route through the Strait of Hormuz, forcing exports onto a costlier overland path through Syria and squeezing the government revenues that depend almost entirely on oil.
The jump follows the surge in crude prices after the US and Israel attacked Iran. Shell also completed its $16.4 billion acquisition of ARC Resources in September, lifting its gas production forecast.
Kristalina Georgieva says oil at $100 a barrel and damaged refining capacity could keep costs elevated well beyond any ceasefire. Governments are poorly placed to cushion the blow, with global sovereign debt now exceeding three times world GDP.
Imports grew three times as fast as exports in August, driven by crude oil, gold and semiconductors. The monthly gap is the largest since before Trump's Liberation Day tariff announcement.
The rise takes borrowing costs past the previous post-COVID peak. The RBA's Financial Stability Review says fewer than 2 per cent of variable-rate mortgage holders are in cash flow shortfall, though that share is expected to edge higher.
The Reserve Bank of India is expected to lift its benchmark repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50 per cent. Rising inflation, a weaker rupee and surging oil prices are behind the expected move.
Hong Kong received almost 100 tonnes of Russian gold in the first seven months of 2026, as Western sanctions keep London and New York closed to Russian bullion. Most of it moves on to mainland China, whose imports of Russian gold rose about 15-fold to $3.3 billion in 2025.
Middle East oil exports have recovered above pre-war levels, but the Houthis' advance into the Bab al-Mandab Strait is keeping crude prices elevated. Brent hit $100.80 on Wednesday, its highest since late July.
Amin H. Nasser called this the most serious energy supply shock of his career. Nearly 3 billion barrels of gross supply have been lost since the war began, and fewer than 6 billion barrels of commercial inventories remain — most of it not practically accessible.
Rising gilt yields have driven lenders to raise fixed rates repeatedly through September. Just nine deals below 5% remain, down from nearly 1,500 at the start of the month, as about half a million homeowners need a new deal before the year is out.
The single currency touched $1.1215 on Thursday, its weakest since May 2025. Political uncertainty in France and Germany added to the pressure, with French bond yields hitting a 14-year high.
Arab Light for Asian buyers fell to $2.40 per barrel above the benchmark, ending five straight months of increases. Bank of America has forecast Brent will average $65 a barrel in 2025 as oil surpluses grow.
The currency has repeatedly set new records since the war began in February. Sanctions, collapsed nuclear talks and domestic protests have all weighed on the rial, while inflation ran above 46% as recently as February 2024.
The drawdown is more than 80 percent of the 400 million barrels agreed by the agency's 32 members after US and Israeli strikes on Iran disrupted supplies. The G7 has separately agreed to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude over the next four months.
A filing has been made against the London Good Delivery system, which sets the standards that determine which refineries can supply gold to the world's largest bullion market. The claimant, the allegations and the stage of proceedings have not been identified.
Brent crude briefly hit nearly $120 a barrel after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, cutting passage for 15 million barrels a day. Global growth forecasts have barely moved, but inflation is rising and the supply workarounds won't last forever.
More than 10 million barrels a day of Gulf production remain shut in, and global demand is falling by 2.5 million b/d this year. The IEA calls 2026–27 'essentially a lost period' for oil demand growth.
Price growth across the eurozone outpaced economists' forecasts, leaving the European Central Bank under pressure to raise interest rates. The margin of the surprise and the causes of the increase have not been reported.
A valve closure on the line from El Sharara, Libya's largest oil field, has halted more than 942,000 barrels of output. The national oil company warns it may declare force majeure and says the Zawiya refinery could shut entirely if the blockade holds.
The benchmark yield reached 4.86% after the Federal Reserve lifted its rate to the 3.75%–4% range and signalled further increases are likely. Inflation has stayed above the Fed's 2% target for more than five years, and the 30-year yield has touched levels not seen since 2006.
The reported plan would use joint ventures with private firms and several federal agencies to promote dollar-denominated stablecoins abroad. Its stated aims include reinforcing the dollar's reserve status and driving demand for US Treasuries, though no official confirmation has been given.
Saudi Arabia aims to restart about half the capacity of its East-West pipeline within days, after drone strikes forced a shutdown last Friday. The disruption is deepening an already tight market: the IEA has raised its forecast for this year's global oil deficit to 1.7 million bpd and pushed back any surplus to 2027.
China's central bank has strengthened its daily yuan fixing for eight straight sessions, its longest such run since 2023. The currency has also been buoyed by strong exports and is on course for a seventh consecutive quarterly gain.
Spot prices have surged 150% since February, pushing some industrial buyers in Asia to switch to coal and fuel oil. Europe is getting temporary relief as cargoes divert away from the region, but low storage stocks leave it exposed if winter turns cold.
The Fed lifted its benchmark rate to 3.75%-4.00% after inflation stayed above its 2% target for more than five years. Officials do not expect inflation to return to target until 2029.
The US-Iran war has virtually shut the Strait of Hormuz, which once carried a fifth of global oil and gas supplies. Shipowners have responded with more than $20 billion in orders for new supertankers, as refiners in Asia and Europe hunt for crude on much longer Atlantic routes.
The 1,200-km East-West Pipeline was shut last week after drone attacks damaged two pumping stations. Aramco is selling extra crude to Asian buyers in the meantime to offset lost exports.
The bank has formally abandoned its baseline oil-market view for the first time since fighting began seven months ago. Brent is trading near $106 a barrel, about $16 above JPMorgan's fair-value estimate, and the bank says it cannot model how or when the conflict ends.
Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline has been shut since 10 September after Houthi strikes caused serious damage. No crude has left Yanbu since the following day, and at least three European refiners have had late-September cargoes pushed back to as late as November.
The country's capital markets regulator blocked withdrawals from seven asset management firms and ordered 130 funds to close. Investors pulled as much as $1 billion from Turkish funds in a single day as the BIST 100 fell more than 5 percent.
The Innovation Exemption lets designated venues offer tokenised shares around the clock with instant settlement and fractional ownership. But companies get 30 days' notice and can veto tokenisation of their own stock.
The Federal Reserve lifted its benchmark rate to 3.75%–4%, with Chair Kevin Warsh saying inflation remains too high. The Fed does not expect to hit its 2% target until 2029, and most officials expect at least one further rise this year.
Gains spread across 12 of 13 major retail categories, easily beating forecasts of 0.7% to 0.8% growth. Economists have raised their third-quarter GDP estimates after the result.
The PHLX semiconductor index fell 5.9% on Monday after Anthropic's Dario Amodei warned that AI development was outpacing safety controls, with OpenAI's Sam Altman backing his concerns. Microsoft bucked the trend, rising 2.5% after publishing a provisional AI code of conduct.
The kingdom produced 6.238 million barrels per day in August, down nearly two million from the previous month. Houthi strikes on oil facilities and blockades of key shipping routes have forced Saudi Arabia to reroute crude, while Brent futures crossed $100 a barrel.
Rising oil and gas prices have pushed inflation well above the bank's 2% target, with the Middle East conflict adding to the pressure. Households and businesses now face higher mortgage and borrowing costs as winter approaches and gas storage remains below normal levels.
The repurchase was three times the Treasury's usual volume and designed to push borrowing costs lower. Bond markets moved in the opposite direction after the expanded programme was announced.
The result was well above consensus estimates of around 60,000 and follows two weak months for payrolls. Wage growth hit its lowest level since 2021, complicating the picture for Federal Reserve rate decisions.
Nonfarm payrolls grew by 162,000 — roughly three times what economists had expected and the strongest monthly gain since March. Rate futures now put the chance of a Federal Reserve increase at 60 percent, up from 49 percent the day before.
Three policymakers already dissented in favour of a hike at the July meeting, and the minutes suggest that number could grow. Futures markets put the chance of a September increase at around 38%.
Private employers added just 38,000 jobs, below the 47,000 forecast and the weakest reading since January. Wages held up, with gross pay rising 4.7% year over year.
The agreement could mark a significant easing of military tensions between the two countries. US oil prices rose above $70 a barrel, though it is unclear whether the deal drove the move.
Kevin Warsh delivered the keynote at the annual Wyoming symposium on 28 August 2026. Federal Reserve leaders have long used the occasion to prepare markets for shifts in policy, making the choice of words — and tone — as closely watched as any formal announcement.
India's markets regulator has cleared Mukesh Ambani's digital services giant to raise $3.8 billion in a listing that would surpass every public offering in the country's history. No date or price band has been set yet.
Kevin Warsh sharpened the Fed's inflation warning and said the central bank has 'work to do' if prices stay stubborn. He also rejected the use of forward guidance, the tool markets rely on to anticipate the Fed's next move.
US 30-year Treasury yields have reached 5.33%, their highest since 2007, as tech giants flood markets with debt to fund AI infrastructure. Yields are surging across the developed world, from Japan to Germany to Britain, with oil back above $90 a barrel adding to fears that inflation will stay high.
Greg Abel's second quarter as chief executive saw the conglomerate spend $23.5bn on stocks, against just $3.7bn sold. Alphabet is now its third-largest US equity holding, and Delta Air Lines has become a $5.4bn bet after Berkshire quit all its airline positions at the pandemic's start.
The AI hedge fund collapse and semiconductor selloff made July the firm's worst month in roughly a decade. Despite that, Jane Street had generated more than $40 billion in net trading revenue through July — more than its entire 2025 record.
The social media company becomes only the second pure social media firm in the benchmark, after Meta. Its stock is still down 31% this year, weighed down by fears that AI is eating into its Google search traffic.
Tehran presented a lengthy list of conditions for reopening the waterway, collapsing hopes of a near-term deal that had briefly seemed within reach. Equity markets are taking it far more calmly than oil traders are.
With margin debt at an all-time $1.5 trillion, the Buffett Indicator near 218%, and the Fed expected to hold or hike, the conditions growth stocks require and the conditions that actually exist have rarely been further apart.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has removed 11 million barrels of oil per day from global supply; a peace deal is expected, but infrastructure timelines and price trajectories remain deeply uncertain.
Spot gold slid roughly 12–13% in June 2026, its steepest monthly decline in nearly two decades, as hawkish Federal Reserve expectations and a stronger dollar outweighed the metal's traditional appeal in times of conflict.
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