Russia’s grain trade has long depended on its southern ports, where the Black Sea and Sea of Azov route handled up to 70% of its grain exports before the attacks. A Reuters analysis of industry data, released on Friday, September 25, said Russia could quickly restart up to 80% of its grain terminal capacity in those waters if diplomatic efforts produce a ceasefire that halts attacks by Russia and Ukraine.
The estimate is conditional on an agreement, whose terms and timetable remain unclear. Reuters did not identify the source for the 80% figure. The Kremlin has acknowledged diplomatic contacts, while Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan is leading an international effort by grain-importing countries to restore Black Sea grain trade.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Friday that India, Egypt and other Middle Eastern countries were taking part in diplomatic efforts. The talks come as the closure of Black Sea and Sea of Azov routes disrupts exports equivalent to 17 percent of the world’s traded grain.
Russia is the world’s largest wheat exporter and accounts for roughly 21 percent of global wheat exports. Ukraine accounts for some 6 percent. Combined, Russia and Ukraine produce roughly 14 percent of the world’s wheat. Wheat prices have risen to a three-and-a-half-year high of nearly $8 per bushel as the maritime corridor has remained closed.
About 53 million tons of combined grain-terminal capacity is currently idle because of security risks, according to the Reuters analysis. Those facilities could resume operations if conditions allow. Total grain terminal capacity in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov region is about 67 million tons.
Three terminals representing about 20% of Russia’s grain export infrastructure in the two seas have suffered heavy damage, however, and could require months of repair. The facilities are part of the capacity that cannot be restored as quickly as terminals idled primarily by the security threat.
NKHP, one of Russia’s three largest grain terminals in the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, was seriously damaged in an August 12 attack. It has annual capacity of 7.1 million metric tons. Sources said repairs could take up to six months, while the company put the period at up to four months.
ZTKT, at the Black Sea port of Taman, was hit on July 30 and is unable to load grain. Its annual capacity is 5.5 million tons. Reuters said the third heavily damaged terminal, together with NKHP and ZTKT, accounts for about 20% of Russia’s grain export infrastructure in the region.
The disruption follows a renewed southern maritime phase of the Russia-Ukraine war in July 2026, when strikes kept the grain corridor closed. Ukraine’s infrastructure ministry recorded 124 Russian attacks on the Greater Odesa ports and waterways in July alone. It said the attacks killed at least twenty port workers and sailors. The ministry also recorded a September 12 barrage involving 129 drones.
Russia has sought other ways to move grain while its southern export route remains contested. Russian companies have been re-purposing fertilizer, coal and other cargo terminals at Baltic and Arctic ports, including Ust-Luga and Murmansk, after Ukrainian drone attacks disrupted Black Sea shipments.
Analysts estimate the combined grain-handling capacity of Russia’s Baltic ports at between 2 and 7 million metric tons. Murmansk commercial sea port has annual capacity of up to 24 million tons and is preparing to begin grain exports in October.
Those alternative routes are developing alongside the diplomatic push rather than resolving the immediate uncertainty over the Black Sea. It remains unknown whether the talks will produce a ceasefire, which attacks would have to cease, or whether vessels will resume loading grain. The grain market has an established pattern of pricing the corridor first on the headline and then on whether ships actually load.
Comments (0)