Brent crude was trading around $105 per barrel on Tuesday after climbing more than 14% in September. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is due to publish its September consumer price index report at 8:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday.
Economists polled by Dow Jones expect headline CPI to increase 0.6% during the month and 3.6% over the year. The annual figure would rise from August’s 3.4% rate and sit further above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
Oil prices have moved sharply higher through the third quarter of 2024. Brent crude gained around 42% over the quarter, including its September increase of more than 14%.
Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at tax firm RSM, said forecasters’ models can miss the scale of an inflationary upswing. “We've got real upside risk on the September CPI,” he said. “Typically, when we have these moves in inflation, everyone's models undershoot the actual outcome.”
Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is expected to increase 0.2% in September and 2.5% annually. The difference between the core and headline forecasts will indicate how much of the projected rise is concentrated in energy.
Robert Sockin, chief US economist at asset manager PGIM, told CNBC that oil prices which remain high could spread pressure into spending beyond energy.
Businesses and households are already focused on prices. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing prices index increased by 6.8 percentage points in September, reaching 77.9.
Consumer confidence reached its lowest point since 2014 in September. The Conference Board’s index fell 6.7 points to 81.9, and references to oil and gas prices hit new highs in respondents’ written comments.
The Fed lifted interest rates by a quarter point in September, its first increase since 2023, and indicated that at least one further rise was likely. Traders in fed funds futures expect the central bank’s next increase at its December meeting.
The financial effect of inflation differs across regions. The average household in the Pacific region has spent nearly $33,310 more than it spent in 2020 because of inflation. A typical Iowa household now needs $1,089 more each month than it did in 2020 to maintain the same standard of living.
Overall inflation in the United States since the pandemic is 22.30%.
Tariffs have also contributed to price pressures. Consumer goods prices rose by approximately 0.25 percent one year after each percentage-point increase in the average tariff. The New York Federal Reserve found that tariffs accounted for 2.9 percentage points of inflation across 67 product categories as of February 2026.
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