The Trump administration announced 20-plus trade deals in 2025. Trump called the EU agreement announced on 27 July 2025 “it's a very big deal…biggest deal ever made.”
Scott Lincicome has offered a sharply different assessment, saying “many of them have turned out to be little more than press releases, if that.” Several promised agreements were never completed, while others were presented as finished and then failed to materialise.
The announcements involving Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar consisted of White House fact sheets touting non-binding investment pledges worth $4 trillion, described as almost double those nations’ collective GDP in 2026.
Export figures also show a mixed result for the administration’s 20 deal partners. Twelve saw their share of US exports fall between July 2025 and July 2026, while eight saw it rise. Together, the partners’ share fell from 44% of US exports in July 2025 to 42% in July 2026. The EU’s share declined from 20% to 19% over the same period.
The timing complicates any attempt to link those outcomes directly to the announcements. July 2025 came before any of the deals had been signed. Chart 2 marks April 2025, when the Liberation Day tariffs took effect, with a red line, and July 2025, when the Japan, EU and Korea agreements were announced, with a dotted line.
The EU deal has been in force since 1 July 2026. China’s share of US exports fell from about 7% to 4% in April 2025, when China retaliated, and remained at that level. Census has published US export data through July 2026.
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