President Trump has said the United States is negotiating a “massive Deal” to buy potash from Belarus at prices “substantially less than we are currently paying to Canada”, presenting the prospect as a benefit to US farmers who depend heavily on imported fertiliser.
But Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko said on Monday that his country could not provide the United States with large volumes. He said existing production had already been committed under contracts for this year, creating an immediate question over the scale of any agreement.
“Even if we wanted to supply [potash] to other, Western markets, we simply do not have those volumes -- everything is contracted for this year,” Lukashenko said. China is the largest importer of Belarusian potash, followed by India and Indonesia.
Trump announced the talks on Truth Social as Washington seeks to maintain dialogue with Minsk despite Belarus’s crackdown on dissidents and its support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Belarus remains under international sanctions for helping the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The United States imports nearly all its potash supplies, according to the US Department of Agriculture. Canada is its principal source. The department said 80% of US potash imports came from Canada in 2024, while US Geological Survey data put Canada’s share at 79 percent that year. The Department of Agriculture said Russia supplied 16% of US potash imports in 2024. US Geological Survey data put Belarus’s share at 4%.
Figures published by the US Geological Survey in February this year showed that the United States imported 79 percent of its potash from Canada between 2021 and 2024. Before sanctions measures, Belarus had supplied about 5 percent of US potash needs.
Potash from Belarus was subject to US sanctions during the period between 2021 and 2024. Those sanctions were lifted on March 19. A 30,000 metric tons shipment is expected to reach New Orleans next month, the first Belarusian fertiliser cargo to arrive in the United States in four years.
Reopening trade could broaden the range of US suppliers and reduce dependence on Canada. Belarus’s stated lack of uncommitted production means it could not fully replace Canadian volumes, however.
The mechanics of Trump’s proposed deal also remain unclear. The US government does not usually purchase potash in bulk or bargain directly over prices. Private companies generally import the product and sell it on to farmers.
In May, the United States lobbied Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine to permit potash shipments through their territories. That effort pointed to Washington’s interest in restoring export routes for Belarusian product after the sanctions period.
Neither the White House nor the office of Jamieson Greer, the US Trade Representative, responded to requests for information about the potential agreement. There is no public detail on whether a formal arrangement has been signed, the volumes under discussion, or whether Washington would seek to buy potash itself or support private-sector purchases.
The gap between Trump’s promised price savings and Lukashenko’s account of contracted supply leaves the commercial feasibility of a large Belarusian sale unresolved. Any increase in imports would also depend on the terms and timing of existing contracts with Belarus’s established buyers.
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