The World Health Organization has projected a global shortage of 11.1 million health workers by 2030, as health systems confront two demographic pressures at once: ageing workforces and growing numbers of older patients.
Nearly one in four doctors worldwide is over the age of 55 and is expected to retire within the next decade, according to the WHO's new report on global health workforce levels and trends. In high-income countries, nearly one in three doctors is approaching retirement age.
The report, released on 18 September 2026, says 67 countries are expected to lack enough personnel to meet their populations' health needs. Its findings draw on data from more than 100 countries, including doctor-age data from 122 countries.
The workforce pressures arrive as populations age. About one in 10 people worldwide was aged 65 or older in 2024. In high-income countries, the figure was nearly one in five. The global proportion of people aged 65 or older is projected to reach about one in eight by 2030.
Khassoum Diallo, acting head of WHO's health workforce policies and data unit, is among the officials behind the report's assessment of workforce levels and trends. The report identifies simultaneous ageing among populations and health workers in many countries as a central challenge for health services.
Global health workforce density has nevertheless increased over the past two decades. It rose 52%, from 44.8 workers per 10,000 people in 2006 to 67.9 in 2025. More than 70 million health and care workers are now employed worldwide.
Earlier estimates had put the global health worker shortage at 20 million in 2013, falling to 15 million in 2020. The WHO now projects a shortfall of 11.1 million health workers by 2030. It also says an additional 832,000 health workers are needed to maintain the current density of medical staff to the population.
The report points to sharp differences in the distribution of staff. Doctor density in Europe is 13 times higher than in Africa. Nurse and midwife density is six times higher in Europe than in Africa.
Higher income countries are set to be the hardest hit by the workforce gap, according to the WHO. Their large share of doctors nearing retirement comes as their populations include a comparatively high proportion of people aged 65 or older.
The report also identifies risks for poorer countries if wealthier health systems increasingly turn to foreign health care workers to fill vacancies. Greater reliance on overseas recruitment could potentially affect healthcare standards in countries that lose staff, particularly where workforce density is already lower.
The WHO report does not identify the 67 countries expected to face personnel shortages or give regional breakdowns for the projected 11.1 million shortfall. It sets out the scale of the challenge, while leaving unresolved how countries will replace departing workers and meet demand from ageing populations by 2030.
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