At a state ceremony on Monday marking three years since the October 7, 2023 attack, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said there would be 'no Hamas rule in Gaza'.
Israeli intelligence assessments nevertheless put Hamas's armed force in Gaza at about 30,000 fighters, roughly its estimated strength before the attack. Israeli television reports have placed the figure between 25,000 and 30,000.
The war began when Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023, killing 1,221 people and taking 251 hostages into Gaza. Israel then launched a campaign that has left most of Gaza in ruins and killed more than 74,200 people.
Israel has reported substantial battlefield gains. By mid-November 2023, the Israel Defense Forces said it had defeated 10 Hamas battalions in northern Gaza. By late March 2024, the IDF said it had dismantled 20 of Hamas's 24 battalions, while most Hamas commanders alive on October 7, 2023 have since been eliminated.
A ceasefire was declared in October 2025, but Israeli forces have killed more than 1,440 people in Gaza since then. Almost 500 Israeli soldiers have been killed in the Gaza Strip during the war.
Israel's security establishment now acknowledges that the campaign remains far from a decisive outcome. Hamas still governs Gaza despite major Israeli military gains and a large permanent IDF presence.
The IDF controls about 64% of the Gaza Strip and has deployed two divisions across roughly 30 outposts. A senior security official told Ynet and Yedioth Ahronoth: 'If Hamas tries anything, it will encounter IDF forces at the front. Our defense no longer begins at the border fence, but inside Gaza. We have stable and very strong control here.'
Hamas is rebuilding its arsenal, including its rocket production and underground infrastructure. It is also rebuilding its tunnel network, retains rocket-production capacity and is receiving weapons smuggled into Gaza from Egypt. The group is distributing weapons to affiliates to preserve its own stockpiles.
The military says Hamas has been weakened, though it remains armed, and maintains that full demilitarisation is nonnegotiable.
Before the anniversary, Defence Minister Israel Katz put the military on high alert, citing intelligence that Hamas intended to attempt attacks and operations. He said that harm to Israeli forces would bring a heavy price for Hamas and Gaza's population.
None of the objectives set by the Israeli government after October 7 has been achieved. Netanyahu has continued to promise voters that Israel will meet those objectives as elections approach in three weeks.
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