Vladimir Putin’s addresses to Russia’s parliament on Wednesday and to the Valdai Discussion Club in Moscow on Thursday come with little indication that the Kremlin intends to reverse course in Ukraine. Russia has waged war there since 2022, when it launched its full-scale invasion, and Russian strikes using ballistic missiles and new jet-powered drones have been taking place every day.
Putin arrived to address parliament on Wednesday before his planned appearance at Valdai, an annual foreign policy forum. The specific policy announcements he may make at the forum are unknown. The broader picture, however, points to a continuing Russian military campaign, even after more than four-and-a-half years of war in which Russia’s army has yet to occupy the whole of Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region.
Moscow is encouraged by Ukraine’s shortage of air defence missiles. That assessment comes as Russian forces continue daily attacks on Ukrainian targets, using ballistic missiles and the newer jet-powered drones described in the brief.
The Kremlin’s public language has also hardened. Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, said: “This is a war Europe is waging against us”. His description reverses the framing of a conflict that began with Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Sergei Karaganov, honorary chairman of Russia’s Council for Foreign and Defence Policy, gave a more explicit account of the escalation Moscow says it could consider. “If they continue this war, a European war with American help, against Russia, on Ukrainian territory, sooner or later we'll feel the need to escalate,” he said.
In comments to the BBC, Karaganov said: “According to my scenarios, the first series of blows will be conventional”. He added: “if Europe does not surrender, unfortunately, we will have to go nuclear. There will be little left of some European countries.” The statements set out a nuclear threat while leaving unclear the conditions, timing or authority under which any such escalation might occur.
Karaganov also acknowledged the human cost to Russia, saying: “We've lost a lot of people, yes”. He described Russia’s objective in stark terms: “We're doing away with Ukraine as a viable state”. The actual extent of Russian losses is unknown from the available information.
At home, Putin approaches his parliamentary address with strengthened backing from the ruling party. United Russia now has more MPs than ever after Russia’s parliamentary legislative vote last month. The result provides the government with a larger parliamentary base as it continues its military commitments.
The immediate military picture remains one of sustained Russian operations and pressure on Ukrainian air defences. The detailed Russian strategy for the coming months is unknown, as are Ukraine’s response capacity and countermeasures. No information has been provided on diplomatic efforts or negotiations.
Elsewhere in Europe, a drone carrying an explosive device was found close to Ukrainian cargo planes at Leipzig airport in Germany. The brief provides no further details about the incident or any link to the war.
Putin’s two appearances are therefore set against a campaign in which Moscow signals endurance rather than a change of direction. The statements from Lavrov and Karaganov make clear that Russian officials are presenting the war as a confrontation with Europe and are publicly raising the prospect of wider escalation, even as Russia has yet to achieve control of the whole Donbas region.
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