Saudi Arabia is preparing an offensive against Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen after the group took control of the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a strategic passage at the southern end of the Red Sea. The operation is expected to begin in the coming weeks and would seek to restore Saudi-backed control over a route that links the Mediterranean and Asia.
The planned campaign would be led on the ground by Yemeni forces overseen by Riyadh, with Saudi air strikes in support. More than 100,000 Yemeni troops could be mobilized, depending on the scale of the operation. The exact timing, the final composition of the force and the choice of operational plan remain unclear.
Riyadh is considering a focused assault around Bab al-Mandab or a wider operation involving coordinated attacks on several fronts in Yemen. The broader option would include the governorates of Al-Bayda, Marib, Taiz and Al-Jawf.
The offensive would mark a major escalation after an informal ceasefire between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis had held since 2022. The truce unraveled in July 2026, when the Houthis resumed attacks on Saudi Arabia and announced a blockade of Saudi shipping. The group declared a complete naval blockade on Saudi Arabia that month and has also declared a blockade on Saudi-linked vessels in the Red Sea.
In September 2026, two months after the blockade was declared, Houthi forces seized the port city of Mokha and several islands near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The Houthis then advanced down the coast and took control of the Bab al-Mandab Strait last month.
Saudi officials have concluded that new peace negotiations cannot proceed while Houthi forces hold the passage. Saudi Arabia entered Yemen's civil war in 2015 at the head of an Arab coalition.
The immediate effects of the renewed conflict have been felt inside Saudi Arabia. A plume of smoke rose from a fuel depot at King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh on September 19, 2026 after Houthi attacks. Last week, some students in Saudi Arabia were told to remain at home and attend classes online because of continuing threats of attacks by the Houthi group in neighbouring Yemen. They were cleared to return to in-person classes the following day.
The Red Sea is a 1,400-mile-long inlet between northeastern Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. It carries approximately 12 to 15 percent of global maritime trade worth more than $1 trillion each year, including 30 percent of global container traffic and significant oil shipments.
Bab al-Mandab is the Red Sea's southern exit passage. Some 4.2 million barrels per day of oil crossed the strait in the first half of 2025. Control of the waterway has therefore become central to the Saudi calculation, as well as to the safety of commercial traffic through the Red Sea.
Houthi attacks on shipping have already demonstrated the risks to the route. Between November 2023 and December 2024, the group targeted more than 100 merchant ships, sinking two and killing four sailors. The Houthis have also targeted Saudi cities and energy facilities.
The United States is already providing intelligence to support Riyadh's operations in Yemen. President Donald Trump has offered intelligence sharing and targeting data to Saudi Arabia, while rejecting new US military operations against the Houthis. Trump said the US-Houthi agreement was still in place when he rejected further military action.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman reportedly called Trump twice in September to seek military backing against the Houthis. It remains unknown whether the United States or other countries will provide support beyond intelligence, and whether the Saudi operation could lead to direct US military involvement.
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