Ethiopia’s 2020 to 2022 civil war ended with a peace agreement in late 2022, yet the settlement left major political and territorial disputes unresolved. Fresh fighting in Tigray now threatens to reopen a conflict whose human cost was estimated by the African Union’s mediator at some 600,000 deaths.
Tigrayan forces launched a major offensive on September 23 and seized three local airports. Fighting was also reported in the neighbouring Ethiopian regions of Afar and Amhara, widening the immediate area of confrontation beyond Tigray.
On September 23, the National Regional Government of Tigray said its forces were acting in defence after an attack by the federal government. The Tigray authorities later accused Addis Ababa of launching an ‘open invasion’ of the region on Wednesday. There was no account in the available information of the federal government’s response to those accusations.
On Tuesday, a strike in the southern town of Alamata killed at least 14 people and injured 22 others, according to the Tigrayan authorities. The overall number of casualties from the renewed fighting remains unknown.
The Tigray People’s Liberation Front, or TPLF, announced on Sunday that it had joined six other armed groups in an alliance seeking to remove the government in Addis Ababa. The seven groups have called their coalition the Alliance for Survival.
Its members include the Fano militia in Amhara, the Oromo Liberation Army, or OLA, the TPLF and four smaller groupings. The alliance brings together organisations based in Oromia, Amhara, Tigray, Somali, Afar and Benishangul-Gumuz. Those six regions account for half of Ethiopia’s 12 regional states.
The alliance combines groups that have operated in different parts of the country and have previously had different relationships with the federal authorities and one another. Its military capacity, readiness and ability to remain united are unclear. Ethiopia’s government has an army numbering some 500,000.
The earlier war was fought between the federal government in Addis Ababa and Tigray’s regional leadership. It also drew in neighbouring regions and troops from Eritrea. The late-2022 agreement halted the most intense violence, though it did not settle the disputes that had fuelled the war.
Regional spillover remains a central concern because Eritrea was involved in the previous conflict. Martin Plaut said: “If a conflict were to spill over, it is quite possible that a conflict involving Eritrea and Ethiopia could then involve Sudanese forces as well, which could drag the whole region into a war.” The likelihood of direct involvement by Sudan or other neighbouring states is unknown.
Ethiopian Airlines has suspended flights to Mekelle, Shire and Axum, citing the “current situation in the Tigray region.” A telecoms shutdown has also been imposed during the conflict, limiting communications as the fighting develops.
Humanitarian pressures from the previous war have yet to be resolved. Around one million people remain displaced. The effect of the renewed fighting on displacement, food supplies and other humanitarian conditions is not yet known, nor is there information on whether ceasefire talks are under way or planned.
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