The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) said it was ending its truce with Ethiopia’s federal government and resuming full-scale warfare, opening a new phase in a conflict that previously killed at least 600,000 people.
The announcement followed months of rising tension after a peace agreement was established in late 2022. The earlier war, which ran from 2020-2022, pitted the federal government in Addis Ababa against Tigray’s regional leadership and devastated the northern region.
The TPLF has launched attacks into the neighbouring Amhara and Afar regions, where fighting has been confirmed in the towns of Abala and Erebti. The group has also seized key airports, according to the information available.
The Ethiopian army said it had killed 272 TPLF fighters in Amhara. There were no further specific casualty figures available from the renewed fighting, and the total forces mobilised by either side were unknown.
The escalation comes days after the TPLF joined a new alliance with six other armed groups against the federal government. The alliance signals broader military coordination against Addis Ababa at a time when the terms of the late 2022 settlement appear to be under severe strain.
The National Regional Government of Tigray said in a statement on September 23 that its forces had acted defensively after an attack by the federal government. The Tigray government accused Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government of launching a new “genocidal invasion” and said Addis Ababa had carried out air and drone strikes. The federal government’s official military response plans were not known.
In Tigray, civilians have begun panic-buying supplies as fears grow that Ethiopia could be returning to civil war. Ethiopian Airlines suspended flights to the cities of Mekelle, Shire and Axum, citing the “current situation in the Tigray region”.
Analysts described the developments as an escalation towards wider conflict. Kjetil Tronvoll, a peace researcher, viewed the developments as a decisive escalation. Gerrit Kurtz, a security analyst at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, described them as a serious escalation.
The renewed hostilities leave several central questions unanswered, including the scale of the fighting, the number of casualties and whether mediation efforts are under way. It is also unclear whether neighbouring countries intend to intervene or seek to mediate.
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