Michael DeSombre, the US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, told investors on 8 October 2026 that they were placing too high a probability on armed conflict across the Taiwan Strait. His remarks came as reports described an unprecedented sighting of a military vessel off Taiwan’s coast.
US officials have repeatedly said Beijing wants the People’s Liberation Army ready for military action against Taiwan by 2027, although Beijing has not publicly confirmed that timetable. Investors and markets have been pricing in a higher risk of conflict across the strait.
DeSombre’s answer was an assessment of Xi Jinping’s calculations. He called China’s president a “very rational actor” who is seeking deterrence rather than military provocation. China and the United States do not want a conflict, DeSombre said.
He argued that deterrence could reduce the likelihood of military action. In his view, Xi would refrain if he concluded that an operation could not succeed or would carry major consequences. DeSombre said effective deterrence, alongside the prospect of major consequences, could stop Beijing from attacking or taking Taiwan by 2027.
What those consequences would entail, and which deterrence measures DeSombre considers most effective, were not specified in his remarks. He said the United States must sustain deterrence with its allies and partners.
Beijing has sought to strengthen its military presence near Taiwan during a period of US-China trade-war tensions since October 2025. The reported vessel sighting formed part of that tense setting.
The remarks came before a planned meeting between Donald Trump and Xi on 30 October, their first since 2019. A summit between the two presidents last month produced no public agreement on Taiwan.
Trump has paused approval of a proposed $14 billion US arms sale to Taiwan. That decision remained in place as DeSombre stressed the need for deterrence alongside allies and partners. A previous $11 billion arms sale in December 2025 prompted a strong reaction from Beijing.
China has not tried to take Taiwan by force in the almost 50 years since the current framework has been in place. China also peacefully regained control of Hong Kong and Macau from their colonial conquerors.
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