China’s 2027 military target has become a central marker in planning over Taiwan, yet US officials now assess that an invasion before 2028 is increasingly unlikely. The assessment reflects delays in Chinese military readiness during the Chinese Communist Party’s anti-corruption campaign, according to two current US officials, one former US official and a person familiar with the matter.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has instructed the military to be ready by 2027 to take Taiwan by force if needed. The date carries symbolic weight as the centenary of the People’s Liberation Army’s founding. The instruction concerns readiness for a possible operation, rather than a declared decision to launch one.
The officials’ assessment does not remove the prospect of military action. It shifts attention towards Taiwan’s 2028 presidential election, which Beijing is watching closely. Some Chinese officials hope the vote could produce a government more willing to bring the island under Chinese control.
The alternative outcome could sharpen the risk. Beijing may increasingly consider force in 2028 and beyond if the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, or DPP, wins a fourth consecutive term and President Lai Ching-te is re-elected, according to the officials. One US official said: “If that happens, I think 2028 becomes pretty sporty”.
Lai took office two years ago. He and the DPP support Taiwan’s separate identity from China, placing the election at the centre of a wider contest over the island’s political future.
Xi has continued to frame reunification in terms of peaceful development. In a speech this week, he referred to Taiwan and spoke of promoting peaceful development in cross-strait relations as a route to reunification. His earlier instruction to prepare for the possible use of force means the peaceful language sits alongside continued military planning.
The reported US assessment attributes the slower timetable chiefly to the effect of the anti-corruption campaign on military preparations. It does not specify which capabilities China still needs for an invasion, or whether US intelligence considers the 2027 goal feasible or aspirational.
It also leaves open how Beijing would respond if an opposition candidate won in 2028, including whether it would pursue a negotiated arrangement. Taiwan’s military preparations, internal debate within the Chinese Communist Party, regional allies and economic conditions could all affect Beijing’s choices, but the assessment described by the officials does not set out their role.
For now, US officials see less immediate likelihood of an invasion than the 2027 deadline might suggest. Their concern is that the political result in Taiwan in 2028 could alter Beijing’s calculation, particularly if Lai and the DPP retain power.
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