The market for older oil tankers is pricing a scarcity that new ship orders are set to address. Brokers at Pareto Securities estimate that buying a 10-year-old oil tanker now costs more than ordering a new vessel, as shipowners place the biggest supertanker order book in at least 25 years.
The rush follows the US-Iran war and the virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a route through which about one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies passed before the conflict. Middle Eastern producers have found it increasingly difficult to secure vessels prepared to use the strait amid the threat of Iranian attacks.
Asian and European refiners are now replacing supplies disrupted by the closure. Shipping analysts say this is expected to strengthen crude flows from the Atlantic basin to Asia, lifting demand for much longer voyages and for the largest class of oil tanker.
Data from Signal Group show that shipowners ordered 217 Very Large Crude Carriers, or VLCCs, in 2026, against 93 in 2025. A VLCC can carry about two million barrels of oil. Allied Shipbroking recorded 164 VLCC orders in 2026, compared with 83 in 2025.
Both measures show orders in 2026 running at more than twice the volume recorded through all of 2025. The buying spree is worth over $20 billion, according to the figures in the brief, and is the largest for supertankers in at least 25 years.
The orders reflect a bet that the disruption to established crude routes will endure long enough to support more capacity. Before the war, the Strait of Hormuz was a central route for oil and liquefied natural gas supplies. Its virtual closure has pushed refiners in Asia and Europe to look elsewhere for crude, while suppliers in the Middle East face greater difficulty moving cargoes through the strait.
Atlantic-to-Asia voyages require ships to travel far further than routes from Middle Eastern producers through Hormuz. That change can increase demand for tanker capacity even when the volume of oil being moved is unchanged, because each vessel spends longer carrying a cargo.
The secondhand market offers a measure of the pressure on available ships. Pareto Securities' estimate that a 10-year-old tanker is more expensive than a new order suggests buyers are placing a premium on existing tonnage, while owners are also committing capital to future vessels.
The available order data differ between the two shipping-market providers, with Signal Group recording 217 VLCC orders and Allied Shipbroking recording 164. Their figures nevertheless point in the same direction: owners have sharply increased orders from 2025 as longer Atlantic-to-Asia trade routes become more important to the crude market.
The brief does not give expected delivery dates, the shipyards taking the orders or the price of individual vessels. It also gives no estimate for how long the Strait of Hormuz may remain virtually closed. For now, the scale of ordering indicates that shipowners expect demand for long-haul crude shipments to remain strong while the US-Iran war continues to reshape trade flows.
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