Spot gold fell approximately 1–1.5% on 30 June 2026, trading between roughly $3,957 and $3,975 per ounce in intraday dealings, capping a monthly decline of approximately 12.4–12.7% — the largest since October 2008, according to Reuters.
The June loss extended gold's losing streak to four consecutive months and left the metal on course for its first quarterly decline since 2024 and its steepest quarterly drop since the second quarter of 2013, Reuters reported.
The selloff has accelerated despite — and in part because of — the ongoing Iran war. While the conflict initially lifted inflation fears and energy prices, investor flows shifted toward the U.S. dollar as the preferred safe-haven asset. Expectations of Federal Reserve rate increases raised the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, further pressuring prices.
Traders were pricing in approximately a 64–70% probability of a Fed rate hike in September 2026, with markets anticipating three total increases in the year, according to the CME FedWatch Tool as reported by Reuters and CNBC. Projections released by the Fed in mid-June showed nine of 19 policymakers considered a rate hike necessary in 2026, Reuters reported on 19 June.
Goldman Sachs revised its December 2026 gold price target down to approximately $3,900 per ounce from a prior estimate of $5,400, Reuters reported on 19 June. The scale of the revision underscores how sharply the outlook has shifted since gold hit an all-time high of $5,594.82 per ounce on 29 January 2026. The metal suffered its steepest single-day fall since 1983 the following day, dropping 9.5% to $4,883.62 spot, according to Reuters.
Edward Meir of Marex placed gold's second-half 2026 trading range at $3,500–$4,400 per ounce, according to CNBC and MarketScreener, though the final shape of that range will depend in part on Fed policy decisions and data that have yet to materialise.
Morgan Stanley maintained a positive medium-term outlook for gold but identified missing ETF demand as the principal obstacle to the metal reaching $5,200 per ounce, according to a report cited by Yahoo Finance on 21 June. The People's Bank of China purchased 23 tonnes of gold in March 2026, compared with 19 tonnes for the entirety of the prior year, the same Morgan Stanley report noted.
Silver, platinum, and palladium posted parallel monthly and quarterly declines, Reuters reported, suggesting the pressures bearing on gold extended across the broader precious metals complex.
Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh — a frequent Fed critic widely regarded as hawkish — to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed chair, announced in May 2026, added to uncertainty in precious metals markets, according to Reuters. U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland were called off in mid-June after Vice President JD Vance cancelled his trip, leaving the geopolitical backdrop unresolved.
Whether the Fed will proceed with three rate hikes in 2026, how ETF demand develops in the second half of the year, and the duration of Middle East hostilities remain unknown variables that analysts say will determine gold's trajectory through year-end.
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