Ontario Premier Doug Ford entered 2026 in political difficulty. His Progressive Conservative (PC) government was mired in controversy over a privately purchased jet for the premier, clampdowns on transparency legislation, and a spending scandal. By July, his personal approval rating had fallen to 24 per cent.
Six weeks later, the trade war changed everything.
A Liaison Strategies poll conducted August 23–24 puts the PCs at 39 per cent among decided and leaning voters, ahead of the Liberals at 35 per cent and the New Democratic Party (NDP) at 20 per cent, according to Global News. Ford's personal approval rating climbed 12 points in a single month, rising from 24 per cent in July to 36 per cent in August, CityNews Toronto reported. Some 61 per cent of respondents still disapprove of his performance.
The surge follows a sharp escalation in the Canada-U.S. trade dispute. Last-ditch negotiations in Washington collapsed late on Friday. The U.S. then imposed 50 per cent tariffs on $20 billion worth of Canadian products, the Associated Press reported.
Canada's federal government, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, responded with dollar-for-dollar counter-tariffs on $27.6 billion in U.S. goods, targeting steel, aluminium, appliances, clothing, seafood, and dairy. Those measures are set to take effect September 8. Ottawa also announced $7.5 billion in support for workers and businesses affected by the dispute, CBC News reported.
Ford positioned himself firmly alongside the federal response. He said publicly he was "glad" Carney did not sign a trade deal, calling it "a bad deal," even as Ford and U.S. President Donald Trump traded personal insults in a public feud, Politico reported.
That combative stance appears to be working at home. According to CityNews Toronto, 83 per cent of Ontario poll respondents said they support matching U.S. tariffs dollar-for-dollar. A further 72 per cent support adding a charge to electricity exported to the U.S.
The national mood mirrors Ontario's. A separate Angus Reid Institute poll found that 76 per cent of Canadians believe Canada did the right thing by ending trade negotiations, and 62 per cent called the counter-tariffs "about right under the circumstances," Global News reported. At the same time, 59 per cent of Canadians said the government has "not very much" or "no control at all" over whether an acceptable agreement can be reached. That scepticism was held equally across party lines.
The pressure from Washington shows no sign of easing. Trump threatened additional tariffs on Canadian automobiles, car parts, and steel, to take effect January 1, 2027, claiming "Canada has been ripping off the United States of America for years."
Whether Ford's recovery will outlast the immediate crisis is an open question. The full methodology and margin of error for the Liaison Strategies poll have not been published, and it remains unknown whether any new negotiations will resume before Canada's September 8 counter-tariffs take effect.
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