Wednesday, October 14Global edition

Flávio Bolsonaro leads Brazil's first round, forcing Lula into a runoff

The right-wing senator took 47% to the president's 45%, with neither reaching the majority needed for an outright win. The two will meet again on October 25, with Bolsonaro also pledging amnesty for his jailed father if elected.
Flávio Bolsonaro, Brazilian senator and presidential candidate, who led the first round of Brazil's 2026 presidential election with 47% of the vote
Photo by Matheus Câmara da Silva on Unsplash
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Flávio Bolsonaro told supporters in Brasília on Sunday that “Brazil wants change”, thanking some 56 million voters as he emerged from the first round of Brazil’s presidential election in front. The 45-year-old right-wing senator took 47% of the vote, against 45% for President Lula, sending the race to a runoff on October 25.

Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party led the count from start to finish as results came in on Sunday. With almost all ballots counted that evening, neither candidate had secured the majority needed for an outright win.

Lula, whose full name is Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, is the 80-year-old incumbent and left-wing candidate seeking a fourth presidency. After casting his ballot, he told voters the choice was between democracy and “barbarism”. He later acknowledged the setback, saying: “I admit I was convinced I would win in the first round.”

The president of Brazil’s supreme electoral court said on Sunday that it had found no evidence of international interference in the election.

Bolsonaro declared himself confident about the three-week campaign ahead. “I am very happy with the real possibility that, three weeks from now, Brazil will give a definitive answer by choosing a modern government,” he said. He also said he wanted to “free the Brazilian people”.

The result puts Bolsonaro, the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, within reach of the presidency. Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year prison sentence for masterminding a failed coup after losing the 2022 election. His supporters vandalised government buildings on 8 January 2023.

Flávio Bolsonaro has pledged to grant his father amnesty if elected. He also received more first-round votes than his father did in 2022.

Lula beat Jair Bolsonaro by less than 2% of the vote in 2022, Brazil’s closest presidential election result. Lula has previously been elected president in 2002, 2006, and 2022.

The first-round results also strengthened Bolsonaro’s wider political position. His Liberal Party elected the most governors, senators and federal deputies. Michelle Bolsonaro, Jair Bolsonaro’s wife, was elected to the Senate on Sunday.

Earlier this year, Flávio Bolsonaro successfully lobbied the US to designate Brazil’s two biggest gangs as terrorist organisations. A victory for him would likely bring Brazil into the US’s “Shield of Americas” coalition against narco-trafficking.

Lula sought to turn the runoff into a second chance. “We are in extra time. In extra time, we will win over the Brazilian people,” he said.

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Harriet BlakePolitics

Harriet Blake reports the machinery of politics from the inside — who is up, who is briefing against whom, and what it means. Sharp, plugged-in, and fluent in the gap between the spin and the story.

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