The United States military's most senior officer has been quietly lobbying the Trump administration to find a way out of the war with Iran, warning that the options for escalation are both limited and dangerous, according to people familiar with the discussions.
General Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has privately told Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director John Ratcliffe, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Vice President JD Vance that the US needs an off-ramp from the conflict, sources told CNN. Caine has also coordinated with like-minded advisers before meetings with President Donald Trump in an effort to align their positions ahead of time.
The push for an exit strategy reflects a significant gap between the ambitions declared at the outset of the conflict and the military reality now confronting planners. Trump's stated objective has been preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. His preferred instrument has been airpower. Both, sources say, are proving inadequate to the task.
Caine told lawmakers publicly that "air power has its limitations." In private, he has gone further, acknowledging that bombing alone is unlikely to deliver Trump's objectives at this stage of the war. Remaining Iranian nuclear facilities — including a site referred to as Pickaxe Mountain — are buried so deep underground that missiles and bombs are almost certainly insufficient to destroy them. A ground operation would likely be necessary, according to CNN reporting. No one inside the administration is currently advocating for that. Analysts estimate such an operation could cost thousands of American lives.
The limits of the current approach are compounded by a depleted arsenal. Caine raised concerns as early as February 2026, warning at a White House meeting that significant US munitions shortfalls — the result of prior defence commitments to Israel and Ukraine — would complicate any major Iran operation, the Washington Post reported. He also warned at that stage that attacking Iran would be far more difficult than the Venezuela operation that captured Nicolás Maduro, and that a lack of allied support would heighten the risks further.
Intelligence agencies have reached similarly sobering conclusions. Both the CIA and the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) have assessed that the ongoing bombing campaign is unlikely to alter Iran's negotiating stance, CNN reported. Eighteen US service members have been reported killed in the conflict so far, though sources have raised concerns about transparency over casualty figures.
Inside the military, the search for a path forward has taken an unusual turn. United States Central Command (CENTCOM), which oversees operations in the Middle East, sent an email to a wide array of military analysts soliciting "creative and unconventional" ideas for pressuring and punishing Iran — an approach described as atypical for military communications, according to CNN.
Trump himself has shown signs of looking for a symbolic exit. He is said to be considering strikes resembling a "fireworks" display — raids on sites already previously targeted — in the hope that a visible show of force could allow him to claim a form of victory and step back from the conflict without having eliminated Iran's nuclear programme. Within the administration, attention has shifted to an off-ramp centred on a potential agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping lane in the Persian Gulf, sources said.
As early as February, both US and Iranian sides were reported to be exploring a framework under which Iran would be permitted a very limited nuclear enrichment programme designated solely for medical research, according to reporting by the New York Times cited by Yahoo News. Whether Tehran would agree to such terms — and whether Trump would accept them — remains unknown.
The US paused its bombing campaign after 13 consecutive days of heavy strikes. United Nations Ambassador Mike Waltz said Trump was giving diplomatic talks "some space" but insisted all options remain on the table, the Washington Post reported. The current status of those talks, and what either side has offered or demanded, is not publicly known.
The gap between the administration's public posture — options open, pressure maintained — and Caine's private warnings to the president's most senior advisers is now, by multiple accounts, substantial.
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