Extreme heat caused by this year’s “super-El Niño” could result in as many as 451,000 excess deaths worldwide from June 2026 to February 2027, researchers at the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab said on Wednesday.
The report, titled “451,000 at Risk: Where Action Can Save Lives During the Super El Nino”, projects the health effects of a climate phenomenon that sweeps the planet from June to February. The researchers said countries in the Global South would carry the heaviest burden from excessive heat.
The study examined the link between temperature and excess mortality in 24,378 regions. Its estimates compare temperature forecasts with the 1996-2025 average, while taking account of local climate conditions and vulnerability.
Climate Impact Lab said the number of extremely hot days was likely to rise by 44% compared with normal years. The report did not set out confidence intervals for the 451,000 estimate, or say whether it represents a central or worst-case projection.
Nigeria is expected to face the largest country-level toll among the projections cited by the researchers. It is likely to suffer 31,400 excess heat-related fatalities from September 2026 to February 2027.
Indonesia is projected to record 19,300 excess heat-related fatalities over the same period, while Sudan is expected to have 17,600. Across Africa’s Sahel region, including Niger and Chad as well as Nigeria and Sudan, heat is likely to cause an additional 66,800 deaths during the six-month period.
The Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia are projected to experience 19,400 additional deaths combined. The study’s regional estimates underline the concentration of projected harm in countries identified by the researchers as particularly exposed to excessive heat.
The death toll could rise further if El Niño continues deeper into 2027, the researchers said. India and Pakistan are among key areas of the northern hemisphere considered especially vulnerable if the event extends into their summer months.
The report does not specify the mechanisms through which El Niño-driven heat would lead to mortality in each region. It also does not say whether its projections include indirect deaths linked to heat-related illness, or how adaptation and public-health measures might affect the projected toll.
The researchers said their methodology will be published in a peer-reviewed journal. They did not identify the journal or give a timetable for publication.
Comments (0)