The Black Sea has become the most dangerous it has been since Russia began its full-scale invasion on 24 February 2022, maritime analysts say, as attacks on commercial vessels disrupt wheat exports from Russia and Ukraine. The two countries together account for roughly a quarter of the world's wheat exports. Their combined exports are down 60 per cent from last year, while global wheat prices have already risen from a year ago.
Violence against commercial shipping has increased sharply since mid-July. Ambrey, a British-based firm specialising in global maritime risk, recorded more than 210 strikes on commercial vessels in the Black Sea between July and the end of September. The firm attributed 125 of those strikes to Ukraine and 88 to Russia.
The figures underline the strain on a shipping route central to the movement of grain. The scale of the interruption has left exporters facing a conflict zone at sea, with the effect already evident in wheat markets. The brief does not give a measure of the price rise or a timetable for any further increase in food costs.
Mykola Lupar, a 29-year-old commander of a Ukrainian navy patrol boat from the Black Sea port of Chornomorsk, said patrol crews were working around attacks while searching the waters for hazards. 'We are trying to find some windows in time between Russian attacks to patrol, to search for mines and some explosive materials'
He described the danger to merchant shipping in stark terms. 'It's very dangerous. For the merchant fleet, I would say there's almost no chance to stay safe in our waters.'
Dmytro Barinov, president of the Ukrainian Ports Association, said the consequences extended beyond Ukraine. 'It's not only a Ukrainian problem. This is a problem for the whole region.'
Russia's Defence Ministry says it is targeting only military assets. The available figures do not provide a breakdown of the strikes by target type or an assessment of damage and casualties.
Turkey has sought to secure a limited truce in the Black Sea, though those efforts have so far failed. With no agreement in place, commercial shipping remains exposed and the disruption to wheat exports continues to affect a market supplied in significant part by Russia and Ukraine.
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