Mobile phone services returned to Mekelle after pro-government forces took control of the Tigray regional capital and fighters from the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, or TPLF, left the city, residents said. The withdrawal followed nearly two weeks of fierce fighting, ending with Ethiopian federal forces entering Mekelle.
The city was largely calm after the rebels pulled out, apart from outbreaks of gunfire and looting soon after their departure, Duke Burbridge, an American doctor with the Health Professionals Network for Tigray, told the BBC. The apparent quiet in Mekelle conceals a wider war now running across several fronts, with Ethiopia also facing insurgencies in Amhara and Oromia.
The latest fighting erupted late last month, effectively bringing down the 2022 Pretoria ceasefire and the fragile peace that followed the earlier Tigray war. Last week, clashes between rebels and federal forces across Tigray, Amhara and Afar left hundreds dead.
The conflict began in 2020, when Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government declared victory after federal forces captured Mekelle. Tigrayan forces later regrouped in the mountains, retook much of the region and recaptured the capital, extending the war for nearly a year and a half. Approximately 600,000 people were killed between 2020 and 2022 before the African Union brokered the Pretoria ceasefire.
This time, the TPLF is part of a broader armed front. Last month it joined six other movements, including the Fano militia from Amhara, in the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, whose stated aim is to remove Abiy’s government. The TPLF and Fano have made common cause against the government.
The rebel forces suffered successive defeats around Alamata and Kobo before withdrawing from Mekelle. Their leader, the TPLF chairman Debretsion Gebremichael, said: “We will confront the enemy on our terms and where we choose” and “We will attack the enemy where we choose, not where he chooses for us.”
Reports indicate that Eritrean troops have entered northern Tigrayan towns while Ethiopian federal forces advanced with air power and ground forces. The extent of any direct intervention by neighbouring states, and the alliance’s military capacity and intentions, remain uncertain.
On Friday, Ethiopia and Eritrea severed diplomatic relations after Addis Ababa accused Asmara of backing the rebel alliance. Ethiopia also expelled an Egyptian diplomat after accusing Egypt of supporting the rebels, and Cairo ordered an Ethiopian embassy official to leave in response. Ethiopia has accused Egypt, Eritrea and Sudan of supporting the Tigray rebels. All three deny it.
The accusations have unfolded alongside closer diplomatic contact among Ethiopia’s neighbours. On 4 October, the leaders of Egypt, Eritrea, Sudan and Somalia met at a quadrilateral consultative summit in New Alamein, Egypt, where they discussed regional issues and pledged stronger political, economic and trade cooperation.
Access to the Red Sea sits behind some of the strain. Ethiopia has been landlocked since Eritrea won its war of independence in 1991, and it relies heavily on Djibouti for maritime trade while pursuing alternatives through Kenya and Somaliland. Abiy, who was sworn in for another five-year term after his party’s June 1 election victory, has made sea access a strategic priority since 2023.
In a parliamentary address, Abiy said: “Based on the principle of give and take, we will work diligently to ensure that Ethiopia has an outlet to the sea.” In January 2024, Ethiopia signed a memorandum of understanding with Somaliland that envisaged sea access and a potential naval presence.
A former Ethiopian government adviser told Middle East Eye that the United Arab Emirates was “calling the shots” over Eritrea and any Ethiopian plan to retake Assab by force. The claim points to the wider interests surrounding the conflict, though the briefing provides no account of the extent of any UAE role.
Ethiopia now holds Mekelle, yet faces fighting in Tigray alongside its conflicts in Amhara and Oromia. Egypt, Eritrea and Sudan deny assisting the rebels while maintaining their own diplomatic coordination. Whether the confrontation remains within Ethiopia’s borders or draws in neighbouring states will shape the next stage of the conflict.
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