Wednesday, October 14Global edition

Iran's rial hits 2.5 million to the dollar, worth one-twentieth of its 2015 value

The currency has repeatedly set new records since the war began in February. Sanctions, collapsed nuclear talks and domestic protests have all weighed on the rial, while inflation ran above 46% as recently as February 2024.
Iranian rial banknotes fanned out, showing the currency's denominations
Photo by Mohamed Marey on Unsplash
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Mojtaba, a 49-year-old father, watched the rial lose 5% over six days during the Nowruz holiday period. On 18 March 2024, the final working day before the holiday, the exchange rate stood at 590,000 to the dollar. By Sunday, 24 March 2024, it had fallen to a then-record 613,500.

Nowruz, the Persian new year holiday, runs from 20 March to 2 April. The two-week break offers people a chance to travel abroad, increasing demand for US dollars and euros. As the rial weakens, those currencies cost more for travellers, while imports and international trade become more expensive for businesses.

The slide has continued beyond that holiday period. In December 2025, the rial reached a record low of 1.42 million rials to the dollar. Mohammad Reza Farzin, who became Central Bank Governor in December 2022 when the rate was 430,000 to the dollar, resigned on 29 December 2025.

On a Tuesday, traders in Tehran exchanged more than 2.5 million rials for one US dollar, another record low. It came 27 days after the previous low of 2.2 million to the dollar on Sept. 2. The currency has repeatedly set new lows since the war began in February.

The contrast with 2015 is stark. That year, after Iran signed a nuclear accord with world powers, the rial traded at 32,000 to the dollar. It is now worth about one-twentieth of its 2015 value.

President Donald Trump later abandoned the agreement, which required Iran to end its nuclear program in exchange for access to frozen funds and other benefits. President Joe Biden said he was prepared to return to a nuclear deal, though formal negotiations collapsed in August 2022. Iran has also supplied armed drones to Russia that have been used in its invasion of Ukraine.

Domestic shocks have added to the pressure. Nationwide protests began on 16 September 2022 after Mahsa Amini died in police custody, and the rial dropped 29% after the protests began. In February 2023, it briefly reached 600,000 rials to the dollar.

Iran’s inflation figures show the strain on purchasing power. The government’s Statistics Center put inflation at 42.5% in February 2024, while the Central Bank said it was more than 46% that month.

The rial has faced earlier jolts from sanctions. In January 2012, after new international sanctions targeted the Central Bank of Iran, the unofficial exchange rate lost 50% of its value in a few days before settling at Rls 17,000.

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Clara IversenMarkets

Clara Iversen writes on markets and the macro forces underneath them, translating rate moves and risk into plain English. Measured, historically minded, and allergic to false certainty.

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