The OECD has raised its forecast for global growth in 2026 to 2.9%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from its June estimates, saying investment in artificial intelligence could provide an important lift to an economy facing disruption from the Middle East conflict.
The 38-member organization announced the revision on Wednesday. It described growth in 2026 as “resilient”, despite a slowdown from last year's 3.4% rate. The OECD also cut its forecast for 2027 by 0.1 percentage points, to 3%.
The revised outlook rests partly on buffers that have so far limited the economic impact of energy market pressures. “Broader financial conditions remain supportive”, the OECD said. It added: “Sizeable oil inventories, additional supply from outside the Gulf economies and discretionary government support measures all helped to cushion the impact on the global economy”.
Those supports face a test from the conflict in the Middle East, which has put energy supplies and prices at the centre of the global outlook. The OECD said its projections depend on a lasting resolution to the conflict. Continued fighting would likely result in higher inflation, it said.
Governments around the world have begun raising interest rates in response to inflationary pressure linked to rising oil and gas prices. Higher borrowing costs can affect spending and investment, leaving policymakers to manage price pressures while growth is slowing.
AI investment is the main potential upside identified by the OECD. The organization said such spending could produce “stronger growth than projected”. Its own estimates put the possible economic effect from AI at 0.25–0.6 percentage points.
The potential gains are uncertain. The OECD warned that growth could slow further if AI investments do not deliver the expected returns. It remains unclear when productivity gains will emerge at scale, which economies or industries will secure the largest benefits, and how adoption and implementation risks will affect current projections.
Other forecasters have put forward larger estimates of AI's economic effect. Goldman Sachs projects a 7% effect, while PwC projects an effect of $15.7 trillion. Estimates also indicate that AI could significantly raise labour productivity growth in advanced economies.
The technology could affect inflation in opposing ways. Efficiency improvements and lower costs may ease price pressures. At the same time, AI investment could increase demand for capital spending, intermediate goods and especially energy, adding to prices over time.
The OECD's assessment also points to financial stability concerns. AI could increase concentration among technology providers, lead to more correlated decision-making and heighten cyber threats. The scale of its effect on employment and wage distribution, along with the balance between its energy-related inflation pressures and its cost-saving effects, remains unknown.
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