An exceptionally strong El Niño is developing across the Pacific, prompting warnings from the World Meteorological Organization that it could become the strongest event of its kind for more than 70 years. The WMO said this would make it the strongest El Niño since at least 1950.
WMO forecasts put the likelihood of El Niño continuing through February 2027 at near 100%. The organisation said the pattern is firmly established and is expected to strengthen into a very strong event in the coming months.
Celeste Saulo, the WMO secretary-general, said: “El Niño has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world.”
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that develops when sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific rise above normal after shifts in trade winds. It can alter temperature and rainfall patterns around the world, and a very strong event can drive extreme weather.
The WMO said monthly sea-surface temperatures could approach 4C above average. In the Pacific monitoring region central to tracking the pattern, surface temperatures have stood well over 2C above average in recent weeks. Temperatures below the Pacific surface are more than 8C above average in some places.
Drier-than-usual conditions are forecast across large areas of South East Asia, Central America and northern parts of South America. El Niño tends to raise global temperatures and can bring extreme weather across a wide range of regions.
Indonesia is already trying to contain wildfires that have burned more than 107,000 hectares of land nationwide during this dry season. Lower rainfall can increase the danger of further fires in dry areas.
The Amazon faces particularly serious risks. Scientists warn that the El Niño phase under way will be the most damaging on record for the rainforest. A super-sized Pacific event is expected to bring a devastating drought to the region, increasing the risk of huge wildfires in an area already feared to be nearing a climate tipping point.
Lower rainfall is also expected to disrupt shipping through the Panama Canal. On Thursday, the number of vessels passing through the canal will be cut by more than 10% in anticipation of lower rainfall. The canal generates about $3bn (£2.2bn) a year for Panama.
António Guterres, the UN head, said the world had entered a “danger zone of extreme weather”. He said: “El Niño is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up.”
The WMO’s forecasts describe the likely persistence and strength of the event, alongside the regions facing elevated risks. The precise timing and intensity of drought in the Amazon remain unknown, as do the wider economic costs for affected regions beyond the anticipated effect on the Panama Canal.
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