Trump confirmed the strait is open and the East-West pipeline has recovered about half its capacity. But on 1 October, Brent was $99-100 a barrel against $72.50 before the crisis, and European gas was more than double its pre-war level.
Talks with Asian customers over alternative delivery routes must conclude by year-end, though pricing, freight and eligible volumes are unresolved. The push comes after a drone attack on 13 September knocked out the East-West Pipeline, Saudi Arabia's main overland route around the strait.
The Strait of Hormuz, which once handled around 20 million barrels a day, saw just four commodity vessels cross it on Monday. Tanker shuttles, ship-to-ship transfers and overland pipelines are filling the gap, but global inventories have fallen sharply and diesel prices have hit record levels.
The US Energy Information Administration now expects Brent crude to average $105 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026. East Coast diesel stocks are running 32 percent below their seasonal average, and US retail diesel hit $6.29 a gallon in September.
More than 10 million barrels a day of Gulf production remain shut in, and global demand is falling by 2.5 million b/d this year. The IEA calls 2026–27 'essentially a lost period' for oil demand growth.
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