The US Energy Information Administration expects Brent crude prices to retreat to an average of $84 per barrel in 2027. Before then, it sees a far tighter market: Brent is forecast to average $105 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026.
The agency published its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook on 6 October 2026, after completing the forecast on 1 October 2026. It raised its global oil price outlook from the previous month as supply disruptions reshape the market outlook.
The fourth-quarter Brent forecast is $14 per barrel above the estimate in the previous month’s outlook. The EIA assumes that oil flows from the Middle East will remain constrained through the fourth quarter of 2026, and cited Iran-related conflict among the factors affecting supply.
Crude oil and petroleum-product prices rose through the third quarter of 2026 amid persistent conflict in the Middle East, the agency said. Regional shut-in production in September was at its lowest point since hostilities began.
Attacks on the East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia point to the prospect of continued volatility in physical oil flows and prices. Extreme tightness in diesel markets is also increasing demand for crude oil to meet diesel demand.
The strain has been apparent at US fuel pumps. Retail gasoline prices averaged $4.35 per gallon in September, while retail diesel prices averaged $6.29 per gallon.
On the East Coast, distillate fuel inventories stood 32 percent below their five-year seasonal average in September. The region imported 124,000 barrels per day of distillate fuel oil in 2025. Those imports make up about 15 percent of regional consumption during December and February.
For 2026, the EIA projects a WTI spot average of $88 per barrel. It expects retail gasoline prices to average just under $3.60 per gallon next year and retail diesel prices to average about $4.50 per gallon.
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