Wednesday, October 14Global edition

Saudi Aramco cuts Asian crude prices for first time in five months

Arab Light for Asian buyers fell to $2.40 per barrel above the benchmark, ending five straight months of increases. Bank of America has forecast Brent will average $65 a barrel in 2025 as oil surpluses grow.
Saudi Aramco logo or oil facility
Eagleamn (pd) via Wikimedia Commons
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Saudi Aramco lowered the July differential for Arab Light crude sold to Asia to Platts Dubai/DME Oman +$2.40 per barrel, from +$2.90 a barrel in June. At the same time, it set the Northwest Europe price for Arab Light at +$3.10 per barrel over ICE Brent futures, up from +$2.10 per barrel. It was the first price cut in five months.

The reductions extended to heavier grades for Asian buyers. Arab Medium was set at +$1.95 per barrel, compared with +$2.35 per barrel in June. Arab Heavy was priced at +$1.20 per barrel, 40 cents below the previous month. Aramco kept the July Arab Light price for the US Gulf unchanged at +$4.75 per barrel over ASCI.

The company cut again for January 2025. It reduced Arab Light pricing for Asian customers by 80 cents, to $0.90 per barrel above the regional benchmark. Official selling prices for Arab Extra Light, Super Light, Arab Medium and Arab Heavy fell by 60 to 70 cents per barrel. For North America, Aramco set January's Arab Light price at $3.80 per barrel above the Argus Sour Crude Index.

Aramco produces five crude grades: Super Light, Arab Light, Arab Extra Light, Arab Medium and Arab Heavy. The price moves followed a period of increases for Asian Arab Light. Aramco set its November official selling price for that grade at plus $4 a barrel versus the Oman/Dubai average. That was its fifth consecutive monthly increase in the November price for Asian buyers.

Pricing decisions have unfolded alongside efforts to restrain supply. OPEC+ delayed the start of output rises by three months until April and extended the full unwinding of cuts by a year until the end of 2026. Saudi Arabia and Russia extended voluntary oil cuts to the end of the year, with Saudi Arabia maintaining a voluntary reduction of 1 million barrels of oil per day in November and December. Saudi production in those final two months was approximately 9 million barrels per day.

Saudi Arabia had also announced voluntary reductions in April, agreeing to cut output by 500,000 barrels per day until the end of December 2024. Bank of America forecast that rising oil surpluses would push Brent to an average of $65 a barrel in 2025. Brent had largely remained in a $70-$75 per barrel range during the past month.

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Clara IversenMarkets

Clara Iversen writes on markets and the macro forces underneath them, translating rate moves and risk into plain English. Measured, historically minded, and allergic to false certainty.

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