Wednesday, October 14Global edition

US employers shed jobs in July 2024, defying expectations of payroll growth

The initial report of 21,000 new jobs was revised to a loss of 10,000. Combined revisions to July and August left payrolls 60,000 lower than previously reported, with unemployment rising to 4.3%.
Job seekers at a US employment office, representing the US labour market in 2024
Photo by visuals on Unsplash
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US employers shed jobs in July 2024, confounding market expectations that they would add workers. The initial report had put July payroll growth at 21,000, before the figure was revised to a loss of 10,000 jobs.

The revisions were larger than the change to July alone. The government cut its July and August payroll estimates by a combined 60,000 jobs, leaving overall employment 60,000 lower than previously reported.

Unemployment also ticked up. In July 2024, 4.3% of US workers were unemployed on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Other measures showed the pressure facing workers. Continued unemployment-benefit claims stood at 1.74 million in the week ending July 20, 2024, seasonally adjusted.

Hiring remained subdued later in the year, with employers adding just 29,000 positions in September.

The wider picture contained signs of weaker employment alongside continued difficulty recruiting. In 2024, 12.2 million workers were employed part-time for economic reasons, and 6.5% of US adults were underemployed because of involuntary part-time work.

There were also 3.9 million workers on temporary layoff, measured on a seasonally adjusted basis, while manufacturing employment fell 3.0% year over year.

Survey data found that 6.7% of employees had been laid off or forced to leave in 2024. WARN notices potentially affected 2.7 million workers in the United States that year.

Employers were still reporting hiring constraints. In the second quarter of 2024, 18.0% said they had seen a moderate or significant increase in the difficulty of finding workers. Job openings recorded in JOLTS stood at 4.64 million in May 2024.

The outlook also carried warnings of further cuts: 7.1% of US employers planned workforce reductions in 2025.

The figures do not establish why employers cut jobs in July or whether the weakness was concentrated in particular industries. Economists were weighing what the data could mean for future interest-rate decisions.

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Daniel OseiMarkets

Daniel Osei takes the contrarian read on markets — the number everyone cites, and why it might mean the opposite. Sceptical by temperament, rigorous with the data, happiest puncturing a consensus.

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