Global LNG importers are expected to buy 60.7 million tonnes less in 2026 and still spend at least $39 billion more on contracted and spot supplies, Rystad Energy estimates.
The difference is the loss of Qatari and UAE exports moving through the Strait of Hormuz. Buyers would need to find replacement volumes at higher prices as those supplies are disrupted.
Under Rystad Energy’s model, deliveries from Qatar and the UAE are unavailable from March through the end of 2026. Total portfolio costs would reach $256 billion, an 18% increase on the pre-war estimate.
Europe faces the largest increase. Its LNG bill would rise by a minimum of $12 billion, or 18%, even as demand falls by 24 million tonnes.
The region had been scheduled to receive 24.7 million tonnes of Qatari LNG in 2026 before the conflict began. Rystad estimates that 20.6 million tonnes of that volume will be lost.
Europe’s exposure reflects the way it buys gas. Around 65% of its LNG is bought on the spot market, where cargoes are purchased at prevailing prices, and the average price in Europe is up 47%. About a quarter of Europe’s long-term contracts are tied to gas price indexes.
East Asia, by contrast, faces the smallest relative rise in LNG costs among regions outside the Middle East, at 9.7%. Spot purchases make up just 14.5% of its imports.
Its longer-term agreements also offer a different price mix. Oil-linked contracts account for 82% of East Asia’s long-term LNG deals. Those oil-linked contracts are up about 28%, compared with 72% for contracts tied to hub and spot price benchmarks.
The model leaves the central practical question unanswered: which alternative suppliers will provide the volumes that buyers must replace. Its conclusion is narrower. Less LNG available to importers does not mean a lower bill when the missing supply has to be bought in a more expensive market.
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