Germany's far-right AfD wins 43.8% in Saxony-Anhalt and leads national polling

The Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) was on 27 per cent in a September national poll, ahead of the CDU/CSU. The result places the far-right party at the centre of a political shift whose consequences for Germany’s investment drive have yet to be established.

In Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD won the state election on 6 September with 43.8 per cent of the vote. Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) won 17.2 per cent. The AfD took 39 seats in the 83-seat legislature. Turnout rose by more than 17 percentage points to almost 78 per cent.

The party’s advance had already broken ground in Thuringia. Its victory there in 2024 was the first by a far-right party in a German state election since the Second World War.

In Brandenburg’s 2024 state election, the AfD secured 30.5% of the vote, up 8.8 percentage points from 21.5% in 2019, making it the state’s strongest party. Its Brandenburg campaign concentrated heavily on energy policy and regional development.

In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the AfD won the state election with 38.2 per cent, ahead of the Social Democratic Party on 35.5 per cent.

Nationally, projections for the 2025 federal election showed the AfD consistently polling above 20%. The Guardian reported that support for the party rose from 10 per cent at the previous federal election to 21 per cent in the 2025 vote.

Economic dissatisfaction and concerns about immigration policy have been identified as the main forces behind the party’s growing appeal. Analysis of voter movements also found that a significant share of new AfD support came from people who had previously abstained and from disillusioned supporters of mainstream parties.

The German results form part of a wider European pattern. More than 23 per cent of Europeans now vote for far-right parties in national elections, according to the PopuList project, compared with roughly 10 per cent a decade ago and about 5 per cent in 1995. The project’s research involved more than 150 political scientists in 31 countries.

An analysis of the 2024 European Parliament elections estimated that far-right blocs would hold around 170 of the Parliament’s 720 seats, or approximately 24 per cent. That compared with 165 seats in 2019.

The Council on Foreign Relations argued in October 2024 that proposals once treated as fringe ideas, including broad deportation measures aimed at asylum seekers, were increasingly part of mainstream political debate. It contrasted that climate with the European Union’s response in 2000, when Austria faced sanctions after the FPÖ first entered government.

The election results establish the scale of the AfD’s rise in Germany. They do not show whether the party’s gains will materially affect investment, what policies might directly influence foreign investment, or how investors and the German government may respond.